HANOI, April 11 (Xinhua) -- The Vietnamese economy will rise to 7.1 percent this year, before easing back to 6.8 percent in 2019, said the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in a new report launched on Wednesday.
"Aided by able macroeconomic management, economic growth will spurt in 2018, with Vietnam becoming one of the strongest performers in the region," Vietnam News Agency quoted ADB Country Director for Vietnam Eric Sidgwick as saying.
Vietnam's robust economic growth will be driven by vigorous manufacturing and export expansion, rising domestic consumption, strong investment fuelled by foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic enterprises, and an improving agriculture sector, he added.
Vietnam has been able to mobilize an abundant supply of young, well-educated workers to attract foreign investment to labor-intensive manufacturing over the last decade. However, as the Vietnamese economy becomes more sophisticated, the gap between worker qualifications and business needs is widening, Sidgwick warned, noting that if not addressed, this skills gap could become a major obstacle to Vietnam's development aspirations.
By sector, solid FDI should enable the industrial sector to maintain strong growth momentum. Construction is projected to pick up in 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, the service sector is projected to sustain growth in 2018 and 2019, with tourist arrivals forecast to rise by 15-20 percent this year and bank lending to grow by 17-18 percent.
Agriculture is expected to continue to pick up over the next two years, growing in 2018 broadly in line with the government target of 2.8-3.0 percent.
Inflation is projected to edge up but remain broadly stable, averaging 3.7 percent this year and rising to 4.0 percent in 2019 as strong domestic demand and high bank lending are partly offset by stable domestic food and transportation costs, along with smaller increases in administered prices for education, health care, electricity and water.
The current account surplus is projected to narrow to 2.5 percent of GDP this year and 2.0 percent in 2019. Merchandise exports are forecast to rise by 15-20 percent in 2018 and 2019.
Vietnam's top legislature targeted GDP growth of 6.5-6.7 percent in 2018. The growth rate was 6.81 percent in 2017.